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Projected 2018 NFL draft order: Race for No. 1 pick all but over

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Gordon's big game can't stop 0-13 (0:43)

Josh Gordon caught a touchdown pass for the first time in 4 years, but Cleveland still lost in OT to Green Bay. (0:43)

The Browns are now all but certain to earn the No. 1 overall pick -- the ESPN live probabilities gave them a 99 percent chance to do so following the 4 p.m. ET games -- after they blew a 14-point lead against the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers beat the Houston Texans on Sunday.

But the 49ers' win helped the Browns in another way as well: Since Cleveland owns the Texans' first-round pick, that selection is now projected to improve since Houston lost a winnable game. Houston now has the sixth-best average draft slot, though it is worth noting that their average draft position is over seven. Still, the Browns are now in position to have two premium picks.

Each week, the Football Power Index (FPI) projects the order of next year's draft by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game location.

In some cases, the projected draft order will not match the current draft order. That's because FPI is considering the probability of outcomes that haven't yet occurred and, crucially, projecting strength of schedule at the end of the season, since that is a tiebreaker for draft order.

Below is FPI's projected order for the 2018 draft, based on each team's average draft position in the simulations. While each team's current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.


  1. Cleveland Browns (0-13)

  2. New York Giants (2-11)

  3. Indianapolis Colts (3-10)

  4. San Francisco 49ers (3-10)

  5. Denver Broncos (4-9)

  6. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans, 4-9)

  7. Chicago Bears (4-9)

  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

  9. New York Jets (5-8)

  10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)